Future of Home Prices: Expert Predictions for the Next 5 Years

Even with so much data showing home prices are actually rising in most of the country, there are still a lot of people who worry there will be another price crash in the immediate future. In fact, a recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them.

To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

While seeing a small handful of expert opinions may not be enough to change your mind, hopefully, a larger group of experts will reassure you. Here’s that larger group.

The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics is a great resource to show what experts forecast for home prices over a five-year period. It includes projections from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. And the results from the latest quarterly release show home prices are expected to go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, remember home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it should go up by another 2.17% next year.

If you’re worried home prices are going to fall, here’s the big takeaway. Even though prices vary by local area, experts project they’ll continue to rise across the country for years to come at a pace that’s more normal for the market.

Local Market Focus: Portland, Vancouver and Surrounding Areas

While national trends provide a broad picture, the impact on our local markets in Portland, Vancouver, Tigard, Lake Oswego, Wilsonville, Oregon City, West Linn, Beaverton, and Tualatin can be quite distinct. Historically, these areas have shown resilience and a consistent upward trajectory in home values, often outpacing national averages. The unique blend of urban development, community amenities, and natural beauty in these regions continues to attract homebuyers, suggesting a robust local market. As a homeowner or potential investor in these areas, the forecasted national growth in home prices is a positive sign, but it’s the local economic factors, like job growth, infrastructure development, and community investments, that are particularly promising. Whether you’re considering buying in the bustling tech hub of Beaverton, the serene neighborhoods of Lake Oswego, or the vibrant communities of Portland and Vancouver, the outlook appears favorable. For a more detailed analysis tailored to your specific locality within these regions, connecting with a local real estate expert can provide valuable insights.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re not convinced yet, maybe these numbers will get your attention. They show how a typical home’s value could change over the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES. Check out the graph below:

Still skeptical? Let’s quantify these predictions. For a $400,000 home purchased this year, the HPES forecast suggests a potential gain of over $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

Bottom Line

For those concerned about falling home prices, the consensus is clear: expect a continued upward trajectory in the national housing market. Should you have questions about local market trends, feel free to reach out for a personalized discussion.